Marriage Success Rate

Marriage success rate continues to be a topic of interest for sociologists and couples alike, as shifting cultural norms and economic pressures reshape long-term relationship dynamics.

The Usual Claim vs. What Data Shows

You’ve probably heard the saying that “half of all marriages end in divorce.” That’s a very sticky statistic—and it has some basis in truth for certain cohorts—but it’s more nuanced when you dig into the data.

• According to recent estimates in the U.S., about 43% of first marriages are likely to end in divorce.
• For second marriages, the risk increases—around 60-67% of second marriages end in divorce.
• Third marriages are even more at risk, with estimates going up to 70-75% for dissolution.

So while “50%” is not far off for some groups, especially among remarriages, it is an overstatement if you’re talking about all marriages broadly.

Trends & What’s Changing

Recent trends suggest that marriages are becoming slightly more stable:

• Data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) shows that some of the newer marriages (e.g. around 2010-2012) are more stable than those in decades past. 
• Divorce rates (for women age 15 and older) in the U.S. have been declining. For example, from about 9.8 divorces per 1,000 women in 2012 to roughly 7 divorces per 1,000 in 2022. 

So even though many first marriages still end in divorce, the likelihood seems to be dropping a bit over time.

Factors That Affect Divorce Rates

The chance that a marriage ends in divorce is not uniform. Some of the key influencing factors include:

• Whether it’s a first marriage or later: Risk increases in second, third marriages.
• Age at marriage: Marrying very young tends to carry a higher risk.
• Education and income: Higher levels of education, greater financial stability are correlated with greater marital duration.
• Cohabitation before marriage: Mixed data, but some studies show that living together before engagement or marriage can correlate with higher divorce risk over time, depending on other factors.
• Geographic and cultural differences: Divorce rates vary significantly by state, region, and country. Social norms, laws, religion, and support systems all play a role.

Global Perspectives

While much of the available detailed data is for the U.S., when you look globally, the picture varies wildly:

• In many countries, divorce rates are much lower due to cultural, religious, legal, or economic factors.
• In others, especially developed nations with more liberal divorce laws and changing social norms, rates may approach or exceed those of the U.S.

So “what percentage” depends a lot on where and which group of marriages you’re talking about.

What This Means: Lessons & Insights

• “50%” is a rough shorthand: It helps frame the risk, but it’s more useful to think in categories (first marriage, second, by age, etc.) rather than as a flat rate.
• Marriage today tends to start more selectively: With many couples waiting longer, marrying older, more education, etc., which seems associated with lower divorce risk.
• Divorce isn’t inevitable: Knowing the risk factors helps couples make choices (communication, shared values, finances) that can improve stability.
• Policy and support structures matter: Legal frameworks, social safety nets, counseling, and societal expectations can influence how marriages fare over time.

Myth vs. Reality: Clearing Up Common Misconceptions

So, what percentage of marriages end in divorce? In the United States today:

• Roughly 40-45% of first marriages may end in divorce.
• For people in second or third marriages, the percentage is higher (often 60-70%+).
• The commonly-heard “50%” statistic is somewhat true in certain contexts but overgeneralized.

In conclusion, the marriage success rate remains a complex and evolving metric shaped by cultural norms, economic conditions, and individual choices. While roughly 50–55% of marriages in the U.S. endure, success is not solely defined by longevity—it also hinges on emotional fulfillment, mutual respect, and adaptability.

Trends show that couples who marry later, communicate effectively, and share core values tend to have higher success rates. As society continues to redefine what a successful relationship looks like, the emphasis is shifting from permanence to partnership quality.

Marriage Success Rate: FAQs

❓ What is the current marriage success rate?

Globally, the marriage success rate varies widely by country and culture. In the U.S., approximately 45–50% of marriages end in divorce, meaning the success rate hovers around 50–55%.

❓ Does the length of courtship affect marriage success?

Yes. Studies show that couples who date for longer periods before marriage tend to have higher success rates. For example, marriages that begin after more than six months of dating have a 55% success rate, compared to 40% for those who marry within six months.

❓ Are second marriages more successful?

Not necessarily. Second marriages have a higher divorce rate, with nearly 60–67% ending in separation. This suggests a lower success rate than first marriages.

❓ What factors contribute to a successful marriage?

Key factors include:

• Shared values and beliefs
• Effective communication
• Financial stability
• Emotional maturity
• Premarital counseling

Couples who undergo premarital counseling report up to 70% satisfaction in their marriages.

❓ Is the marriage success rate improving or declining?

In many countries, marriage rates are declining, and people are marrying later. While fewer people are marrying, those who do often prioritize compatibility and stability, which may improve long-term success rates.